A poll released the morning of the Iowa caucuses by Emerson College Polling Society finds Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz by 1 point–27% to 26%–in the Republican contest and Marco Rubio in striking distance at 22%.

The poll gives Rubio his best showing yet, but it is in line with general momentum in recent polls. Opinion Savvy’s poll, which surveyed people between January 29-30, found Rubio and Cruz tied at 19% and Trump with 20%. Quinnipac (Jan. 25-31) found rubio at 17%. Overall, Rubio has gained 6 points in the Real Clear Politics average since January 23, to rise to an average of 16.9% in recent polls. Trump and Cruz have both seen their numbers fall in that timeframe.

Also notable: Emerson found Trump was hurt by pulling out of the Fox News debate right before Iowa. 39% of voters survey said they would be less likely to vote for Trump, compared to 14% who would be more likely, while it wouldn’t factor into 52% of people’s votes.

Hillary Clinton was found to be leading Sanders 50.6% to 42.6%, although, due to how the Iowa caucuses distribute delegates on the Democratic side, the number of delegates might look different. For one thing, Martin O’Malley supporters, who are 4.1% of the electorate in the poll, will have to support another candidate when O’Malley falls under the threshold.

Full poll results available as a PDF.

Picture of Rubio by Gage Skidmore, Flickr user. Iowa caucueses logo designed by DonkeyHotey, Flickr user.


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