- If the Kremlin decides it’s a cold war, it is a cold war…regardless of what US/West wants. “The enemy gets a vote”…as Gen MadDog Mattis said. One cannot walk away, if a conflict is thrust on them by adversarial powers…and sooner or later, the West needs to come in terms to that.
- Major implications for China, if US-Russia bogged down in proxy conflicts in Europe and Middle East, China can develop economically more, with free hand in Africa, and Lat-Am and also in the finance sectors in UK and Germany.
- Russia is not the Soviet Union. The intention is there, but not the capability and global reach. Any proxy conflict will be localised in mainly East Europe an Middle East.
- However, if US leaves the ME to Russia and other regional powers to balance, and focuses attention to Asia, it will be interesting to see in the next few years. Just a word of caution, any conflict in Europe and Middle East, will pale in comparison to a Great Power war in Asia.