Date: February 21, 2016

Podcast: Major political earthquakes in UK and US in the last 24 hours

430353e5aa752b468ab98f5d681f2e8652907b81So, Trump won South Carolina, going against every political analysis…after kicking the Bush clan in the chin, going Truther on the Iraq war, regurgitating Democrat talking points, praising Putin, defrauding veterans, and yet he won the most militaristic state in the US. Now, my colleague and co-editor of this blog, Mitch Blatt thinks that there is still time, that establishment will bandwagon behind Rubio. But Republicans now are acting like crabs in a bucket, pulling each other down, so I remain skeptical. If this goes on, Hillary will be handed the Presidency in a plate.

In UK, Boris Johnson just went all guns blazing, and decided to campaign for Britain going out from the EU, thereby breaking and splitting the Conservatives, and joining with far right leaders like Nigel Farage and populist weirdos like George Galloway. george-galloway

All in all, everything changed in the last 24 hours, and we’re in for a bumpy ride in the next few months! Watch this space fellas!


Bush drops out; I called it in May

After finishing fourth in South Carolina (results), 14 points behind Ted Cruz and just 0.2 points ahead of John Kasich, Jeb Bush has finally thrown in the towel.

This confirms what I said in May 2015:

It’s early in the campaign, so it is possible Bush will recalibrate and improve his performance, but, knowing what we know now, Jeb Bush isn’t likely to win the presidency.

Since leading the polls for the first half of 2015, Bush has struggled ever since Donald Trump entered the race on June 16, falling from 17 percent in the Real Clear Politics average on July 15, 2015 to 12 percent two months later and on a straight shot downhill until settling around 4-5 percent in December, despite having had well over $100 million injected into his super PAC.

Trump’s entrance into the race will be blamed by many for Bush’s loss, but the fact that Bush struggled so mightily in the face of Trump’s fire was really just the symptom of a bigger problem: Bush was never a skilled campaigner. It was something that was evident at least a month before Trump’s announcement (as my prediction suggests).

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